DUBLIN, CA — As the holiday season kicks off and officials warn residents about limiting their interactions with others outside of their own household to curb the spread of the coronavirus, a tool developed by researchers from several universities lets you see your risk of exposure to the virus at an indoor gathering.
The tool shows the estimated chance — between 0 and 100 percent — that you’ll encounter at least one person with the coronavirus at an event in your county. You can reduce the risk by wearing a mask, distancing and gathering outdoors in smaller groups, researchers said.
As of Wednesday, if you were to attend an event with at least 15 people in Alameda County, there’s an eight percent chance that someone in the group could expose you to the virus, according to the COVID-19 Risk Assessment Planning Tool. If your gathering has 10 people, that risk would be six percent.
Two Georgia Institute of Technology professors led the creation of the project, and their team included researchers from Stanford University and the Applied Bioinformatics Laboratory.
“By default we assume there are five times more cases than are being reported,” the research team said in a statement. “In places with less testing availability, that bias may be higher.”
>> Access the COVID-19 Event Risk Assessment Planning Tool here.
Alameda County is in the most-restrictive purple tier of the state’s four-tiered, color-coded COVID-19 risk system. That means indoor gatherings are not allowed here, but the state permits outdoor gatherings with a maximum of three households and safety precautions such as wearing masks and maintaining six feet of distance between others who are not in your household.
Public health officials in Alameda County and across the Bay Area recommend people keep gatherings “small, short, stable and safe,” and ideally close enough to home to avoid long-distance travel.
The safest way to celebrate is with virtual gatherings or at home, officials said.
There were 27,857 COVID-19 cases reported in Alameda County as of Wednesday morning and 499 deaths have been linked to the virus. That’s up from 27,065 cases a week ago, county data show. No new deaths have been reported over the past week.
Alameda County has seen an average of seven new COVID-19 cases per day over the past week. The test positivity rate has been 2.8 percent, on average, over the past week. These data lag by four days “to ensure enough time for accurate reporting,” according to the county.
Here’s the breakdown by community:
- Alameda: 607
- Albany: 81
- Berkeley: 1,105
- Castro Valley: 751
- Dublin: 434
- Eden Area: 1,799
- Emeryville: 134
- Fairview: 202
- Fremont: 2,061
- Hayward: 4,168
- Livermore: 1,226
- Newark: 763
- Oakland: 10,273
- Piedmont: 66
- Pleasanton: 658
- San Leandro: 1,566
- Sunol: 13
- Union City: 1,109
- Other: 45
Read more safe Thanksgiving gathering tips: Alameda County Health Officer Issues Thanksgiving Guidance
See the full breakdown of Alameda County COVID-19 data.
Amber Fisher contributed to this report.